The day after the rest day, the battle for the yellow jersey resumes - and immediately we head into a hilly time trial. Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard will need to be at their best because time losses are lurking around the corner. IDLProCycling.com takes a closer look at the stage for you.
Looking at the route book, one might expect a fairly flat time trial. However, don't be fooled by this altitude profile. There are some steep climbs in this deceptive stage. Take the Côte de la Cascade de Cœur, an uncategorized hill with a 1.3-kilometer distance and an average gradient of 8.5 percent. This is definitely what we would call a tricky climb.
The riders will tackle this tough climb shortly after starting in Passy, just under three kilometers into the stage. This means that a good warm-up might be even more important than usual for a time trial. After seven kilometers, the first intermediate times will be taken, revealing who has started strongly in their race against the clock.
Following the initial climb, there will be nine relatively flat kilometers where powerful riders can make a difference by pushing into a high gear. Riders such as Wout van Aert and Stefan Küng hope to create a gap compared to the lighter climbers, with an eye on what's to come. After sixteen kilometers, the riders will face the real test of this time trial: the Côte de Domancy.
This climb is 2.5 kilometers long with an average gradient of 9.4 percent. Even when riders reach the top, they are not truly done climbing just yet. The final three kilometers of the time trial continue to track uphill, which may catch some riders off guard. Those who can maintain a heavier gear than their direct opponents will have a significant advantage here.
Times
Start: 1:05 p.m.
Finish: 5:36 p.m.
Rain is forecasted in Combloux for the upcoming Tuesday. This means that the descent will be more slippery than usual. However, with a temperature of 31 degrees Celsius, the rain will mainly provide a welcome cooling effect.
Top overall contenders Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar are two of the absolute favorites for this time trial. Both riders have proven in previous Tour de France time trials that they can compete with the world's best when in top form. In the hilly Tour time trial to Rocamadour in 2022, Vingegaard maintained a nearly identical pace to eventual winner Wout van Aert, until he decided to ease up slightly after a slip-up. Pogačar finished just under half a minute behind Van Aert.
Text continues below photo.
Vingegaard's slip-up in the time trial to Rocamadour in 2022.
We've already mentioned this next contender's name, and he is once again among the favorites: Wout van Aert. However, there is one problem for the Jumbo-Visma rider: the time trial is much hillier than last year. The climbs are steeper and will play a prominent role in this time trial. Therefore, it remains to be seen how well he can keep up with Vingegaard and Pogačar. We place him slightly below the duo on our favorites list.
For a time trial specialist like Stefan Küng, this route will likely be too challenging, but he will undoubtedly strive for a good result. Riders such as Kasper Asgreen, Rémi Cavagna and Victor Campenaerts, who belong to the second tier of time trialists, will likely struggle with the demanding climbs. However, as they have been climbing reasonably well in this Tour so far, they might still achieve a good ranking in the classification. However, we expect that they will be outperformed by Vingegaard, Pogačar and Van Aert.
Then there's the question as to how Mathieu van der Poel will perform. On a good day, the Dutchman is capable of a great time trial, so he is not necessarily without a chance. Since he hasn't won a stage yet, he might go all out for the time trial. However, due to the challenging climbs, we consider his chances slim. Someone like Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) is more likely to shine on a course like this.
The other contenders in the general classification will obviously push themselves to the limit in this race. Carlos Rodríguez has been showing better form and has previously performed well in time trials. Adam Yates is on his tail in the general classification. They seem to be the top favorites for the final podium spot in Paris. However, it remains to be seen how much freedom Yates can count on from team leader Pogačar. Nevertheless, Pogačar has already indicated that Yates will go all out during the time trial.
Simon Yates sometimes surprises with a great time trial. Can he deliver in the third week of the Tour?
Adam's twin brother, Simon Yates, occasionally manages to pull off an impressive time trial, seemingly out of nowhere. For example, in 2022, he won the Budapest time trial during the Giro. That same year, he finished seventh in the Vuelta time trial just before having to withdraw from the race due to COVID-19. He is currently eighth in the general classification and hopes to surpass Pello Bilbao. Tuesday is an ideal day for this. Our final rider completing the top 5 is Jai Hindley. After his crash on Saturday, he lost a lot of time on Sunday. It remains to be seen how he recovers during the rest day.
Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
Outsiders: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla)
Longshots: Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Rémi Cavagna (Soudal Quick-Step)