Will we finally get a real fight for green in 2023? It just might. Former top favorite Wout van Aert is making no goal of it, and behind him, a host of fast men are eager to take the throne. IDLProCycling.com lists the ten favorites for the points classification in the Tour de France.
The points classification has not always been exciting in recent years. For years, Peter Sagan dominated in these rankings, winning the green jersey no fewer than seven times. An all-rounder, he set the tone for the type of rider needed to triumph in Paris. Last year Van Aert won with a huge gap to the number two.
Still, Mark Cavendish and Sam Bennett proved in 2020 and 2021 that pure sprinters can still win too, provided they rake in a lot of points in the pure bunch sprints, so that the all-round sprinters can no longer close the gap in the hilly stages. The course of the Tour in 2023 is more mountainous than ever, but there are also about six or seven sprint opportunities for the pure powerhouses. That's going to be fascinating!
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2022 Wout van Aert
2021 Mark Cavendish
2020 Sam Bennett
2019 Peter Sagan
2018 Peter Sagan
2017 Michael Matthews
2016 Peter Sagan
2015 Peter Sagan
2014 Peter Sagan
2013 Peter Sagan
In the 2023 Tour, there are again two different ways to earn points for the green jersey. First, this is possible at the finish line, where the first fifteen riders ride into the points. How many depends on the stage difficulty. For flat stages, there are more points to be earned than in the tougher mountain stages. Because of this, sprinters invariably come out on top as possible candidates for this classification.
In addition, the organization has also created so-called intermediate sprints. These take place once per stage (not in the time trials) and here the first ten riders compete for points. When there are small leading groups ahead, the riders for the green jersey have to be alert. The number of points per intermediate sprint does not depend on the difficulty of the stage.
Flat stages:
Finish: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4 and 2 points
Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point
Mountain stages:
Finish: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point
Intermediate sprint: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point
Time trials:
Finish: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point
To create this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten on the question, "Who is most likely to win the points classification in the Tour de France?" Each top ten was assigned points, according to the following sequence: 12 points for the number one, 10 for the number two, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point. For each rider, the total number of points received is converted into a percentage of the maximum number of points to be obtained. This is indicated by the respective riders. This gives you a better idea of the odds according to In the Leader's Jersey!
Once the dead favorite heading into the Tour de France, now only a very small outsider. Peter Sagan is no longer the rider who took points in at least 18 stages out of 21. Not for nothing does the Slovak of TotalEnergies quit at the end of this season and will focus on mountain biking. He has tried everything, but the new generation has overtaken him on all sides.
And yet he was on many of our editors' lists because you never completely rule out a seven-time winner of the green jersey. For the story, it would be insane if Sagan can compete fully for points one more time, he doesn't even necessarily have to win a stage to do so. He was also on a good level this year in the Vuelta a San Juan and the Four Days of Dunkirk, among others, but can he do it in the best sprint field in the Tour? Hup Peter, we keep our fingers crossed for you!
Mathieu van der Poel is in the best shape of his life and in any other team he could have gone full green. For two reasons, he is only ninth in this list. First of all, there is Jasper Philipsen, who with Alpecin-Deceuninck goes to the Tour as a sprinter and really makes a goal of the green. We'll talk about him later...
The second reason is that Van der Poel doesn't seem to feel like chasing points at all. He wants to win stages and put all his energy into it. Should Philipsen drop out, who knows what will happen then, but prior to the Tour we expect Van der Poel to be mainly in the hills and maybe even the mountains when it comes to stage success. In the sprints, he will use his mad thighs to lead out for Philipsen.
Christophe Laporte is coming to the Tour de France to serve as a domestique, right? The Frenchman has Jonas Vingegaard as his leader for the GC and Wout van Aert is higher in the ranking than Laporte when it comes to sprinting and punching. But as with Van der Poel, if Laporte gets and takes the space, on paper he is a perfect candidate for green.
Since his move to Jumbo-Visma, Laporte has become one of the better all-rounders in the peloton. He can win classics, last year he jumped away in the third week in the finale and won a stage in the Tour, and in his time with Cofidis, he forged his way into bunch sprints several times. The odds are small, but if it goes the way it might go, Laporte could just become a serious contender in the points standings.
Dylan Groenewegen at Team Jayco-AlUla seems slowly on his way to a new heyday, as he experienced with Jumbo-Visma. The 30-year-old Dutchman is in his second season in Australian service and after winning a Tour stage last year, there may be more in store for him this year. His sprint train is running, the power is there and so the green automatically comes into view.
With five or six chances for the pure sprinters, Groenewegen will have to be dominant if he wants to have a serious chance in the points classification. The better climbers can pick up so many points elsewhere that you really have to win three or four stages of fifty points if you want to stand a chance as a real sprint bomb. But hey, Groenewegen already proved he can peak when he has to. And after two stage wins in the Tour of Slovenia, he and his lead out probably have a lot of confidence.
What goes for Groenewegen also goes for Fabio Jakobsen, of course. The Soudal-Quick Step sprinter will be trusted as the sprinter on duty for the second year in a row, after hitting the ground running in the opening weekend last year. With a decent sprint train - including Michael Mørkøv and Casper Pedersen - all the ingredients are in place to be dominant. Not for nothing did he already win two stages in the Baloise Belgium Tour.
But as with Groenewegen, it will also be difficult for Jakobsen to win the points classification. That will require a Cavendish edition, a Tour de France in which a single sprinter wins almost all of the sprints. Jakobsen is undoubtedly the candidate to achieve that, even more so than Groenewegen. He just has to survive the steep cols in time...
Tadej Pogacar at five in a list for the points standings? Yes, sorry... After all, the best man is the fastest and most explosive climber on the starting list, so there are a lot of points to be picked up for the green for a rider who wins three or four stages and enters the favorites every day. Pogacar will have to be extremely dominant to pull this off, but we won't rule it out.
In doing so, the UAE Team Emirates leader also needs a bit of luck, and a good team. Whoever wants to compete for day victories in the mountains needs a team - or a rival - that wants to control and bring the classification riders back to the front in the finale. UAE is not going to do that all Tour anyway, but perhaps the proportions are such that there are more leaders who see chances for stage success. That totally plays into the hands of someone like Pogacar.
We arrive at the last riders, the real favorites for the green. These are the riders who, in addition to sprinting, are also good climbers, and so can pick up points anywhere on the course. Mads Pedersen totally belongs to that category, especially after what he has shown in his last three grand tours. The Dane of Trek-Segafredo has definitely entered the world top.
In last year's Tour, Pedersen had some trouble getting into it, but did win a stage from the breakaway in the second week. In the Vuelta a España, he then went all out for the points jersey and brilliantly succeeded in that mission. Pedersen won three stages and finished in the top two no less than seven times. In this year's Giro d'Italia, he did the same. He won a stage, finished top four five times and then suddenly the corona monster struck. Pedersen had to get out and thus comes to the Tour fresh. Watch out!
In terms of percentages almost equal to Pedersen and that seems fair on paper. Biniam Girmay is riding his first Tour de France and expectations are immediately high. The Eritrean proved last year in the Giro d'Italia that he can sprint and he can get over an average hill with two fingers in his nose. In the Tour of Switzerland, he put the entire peloton on it that way in a tricky finale.
And there are quite a few of them in the Tour de France. Girmay is able to ride the top three in all sprints á la Pedersen and can also collect a lot of points in the places where the real sprinters are no longer present. In principle, stage success is the first goal, but that could be achieved quickly. The green will then soon loom...
Last year's winner should be able to dominate this classification for years, only that's not what Wout van Aert wants. The Belgian of Jumbo-Visma showed at the BK time trial that the Tour form is already there, but he already indicated that he will distribute his forces a little better in July. Last year Van Aert smashed his way through every day, in the sprints and in front of Vingegaard. He came out of the Tour dead tired as a result.
That has to change now because Van Aert is eager to score at the World Championships in Glasgow, in August. It is therefore realistic that Van Aert will sprint, but whether we will see him in all the intermediate sprints and every day in the breakaway? We venture to doubt that. Still, he is in second place, because Van Aert also indicated that if the green is still in the picture in week two or three, he is willing to go for it. That's the thing with top riders with a surplus, they might be able to take home the green in 2023 at eighty or ninety percent...
Not by everyone, but by most editors, Jasper Philipsen is one of the favorites for green. The Belgian from Alpecin-Deceuninck also rode the Tour in 2021 and 2022 for that team and he impressed both times. In 2021, he rode among the first three six times but never won. It caused tears on the Champs-Elysées. In that year's Vuelta, he rode off the frustrations with two stage wins.
A year later, he returned to the Tour better than ever. Philipsen won two stages in the third week, including the one on the Champs-Elysées. In the points classification, he finished second, behind the untouchable Van Aert. If his compatriot from Jumbo-Visma indeed keeps a more low profile this year, then Philipsen is the man to keep an eye on. Like Van Aert, he can cross a mountain and, unlike Girmay and Pedersen, is also capable of winning a true bunch sprint. A lead-out from Van der Poel only makes all that more plausible.