Interview | Olympic dream Van der Poel increasingly a matter of gambling and hoping: "Everything needs to go well"

Gerben de Knegt is aware that the chances of having no Dutch male participants in the mountain biking event at the 2024 Olympics are becoming greater and greater. The national coach had two men, Mathieu van der Poel and Milan Vader, competing in Tokyo 2021, but for Paris 2024, it's increasingly turning into a matter of gambling and hoping. In an interview with IDLProCycling.com, coach De Knegt explains why, despite a seemingly hopeless situation, he continues to hope for a miracle.

"The Olympic qualification ranking runs from May 2022 to May 2024 and is separate from the regular UCI ranking. On May 26th, 2024, that ranking will be closed, and then the final tally will be made. Currently, we are about 600 to 700 points away from the nineteenth spot," De Knegt once again describes the current situation of Dutch riders attempting to qualify for men's mountain biking. The nineteenth spot grants one spot at the starting line, while finishing in the top eight of the qualification ranking provides two spots. In the women's category, the Netherlands is on track to secure two spots, but for the men, they'll have to come up with a new plan.

And De Knegt does have a plan. Despite the difficult situation, the Dutch coach remains extremely positive and determined, presenting various calculations during the conversation. "For example, Tom Schellekens finished third in the U23 category in Nove Mesto and earned eighty points. If he can achieve that a few more times this season, he can score around 500 points and bring us within reach. If Mathieu manages to pull off two more races this year, and two more in April and May next year, it might still be possible."

Van der Poel wants to get to the Olympics through World Championships

Fortunately for the Netherlands, there are several roads that lead to Rome (or, in this case: Paris). "It would be ideal if we could secure a starting spot through the regular pathway, by finishing among the top nineteen countries in the Olympic qualification ranking. That ranking is stable, and if you have a good position there, the chances of making it are very high. Only the top three riders in the UCI ranking count for that, and currently, those are David Nordemann and two U23 riders," says De Knegt, who has been unable to rely on Van der Poel and Vader due to injuries and a busy schedule. "The initial plan was for Mathieu to participate in a few World Cup races this year, but after a lot of complications with his schedule, it turned out not to be a realistic option."

And so, the national coach had to switch gears. The scenario he didn't prefer is becoming a reality: Van der Poel needs to have an exceptional day and achieve a good result at the Mountain Biking World Championships in Glasgow in August. "That's plan B. You have to hope for a decent result at the World Championships. Let's say Mathieu finishes ninth, and the eight countries ahead of us already have a starting spot through the Olympic ranking, then the two countries that are not among the top nineteen in the Olympic ranking will also receive a spot for the Olympics. That's the current idea." It's an unusual way out, but one that De Knegt embraces wholeheartedly. "I would have preferred a different scenario, but I'm not going to despair right away. It's still definitely possible."

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"If Nordemann can ride his way up from 70th to 20th place, then Van der Poel should definitely be able to do that," says De Knegt. 

After all, with Van der Poel the coach doesn't just have any random rider in his corner for the World Championships. Although the Alpecin-Deceuninck team leader won't participate in any preparatory races leading up to Glasgow, De Knegt remains optimistic. "I do think he can finish in the top nine even without preparation. He understands the situation very well. He doesn't have any points, so he'll start further back in the World Championships. But if Nordemann can ride his way up from 70th to 20th place in a World Cup race, then a fit Mathieu should certainly be able to do that - and then some."

However, everything must come together perfectly on that one day in Glasgow. Van der Poel cannot afford any bad luck, crashes, or having a bad day. "Everything will need to go well because everyone knows it's not an ideal situation. However, Mathieu van der Poel is incredibly talented, and he occasionally rides his mountain bike at home. He may not do specific interval training, but it's still a bike with pedals. It will be a great challenge, for sure. The plan now is to get through Monday after the road race, thoroughly explore the MTB course on Tuesday, possibly participate in the team relay for points on Wednesday, have another session on Thursday, and then he'll get the hang of that course."

And if, unfortunately, it doesn't work out? Then the path through the World Championships will be closed. In that case, the Netherlands will have to gather points like crazy for the qualification ranking until May 26, 2024. "I think Mathieu is a bit disappointed as well, but you can't split yourself in two. Just because Pidcock is doing it doesn't mean Mathieu has to do it and can do it successfully. It's all very challenging, and choices have to be made. And if Mathieu has bad luck at the World Championships and doesn't achieve a good result, there are still two World Cup races in September and October, in the US and Canada. He could still contribute there."

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Milan Vader can forget about the Olympics

An additional setback for the men's team is that Vader, who finished tenth at the Tokyo Olympics, will essentially no longer contribute points. The Dutch rider from Team Jumbo-Visma suffered a severe crash in the Tour of the Basque Country in 2022 and even had to fear for his life. "Milan should do what he enjoys. In the days following that terrible crash, we were all stressed about whether he would even recover. If he's cycling, I'm already happy that he's on his bike. Many people now see him as the guy who had that fall, but he was almost dead, you know! Let him enjoy cycling, although I know him well enough to know that he has many ambitions. It frustrates him that things are not working out as he thought they would. If he has more time, he can definitely work his way back up, but then he'll need to score points again, and that, in combination with road racing, is a difficult process - and more likely impossible."

De Knegt is honest enough to state that Vader can forget about the Olympics, although an attempt was made to reintegrate him. "We both had hoped for a bit more, but it's difficult. After his injury, he did some road cycling, and at the end of last year, he was on the mountain bike in Greece. In Nove Mesto, we requested an injury status for him, which allowed him to start with the UCI points from before his fall in 2022. That enabled him to compete in the Short Track and have a decent starting position on Sunday. We had hoped that he could achieve a good result and thus enter the World Cup rankings, but it didn't work out. Now he's riding with his current UCI ranking, which was 110th in Lenzerheide. He still finishes fiftieth, so it's not a bad race. But it's also nowhere near enough for points or the Olympic qualification."

So we'll have to cross our fingers for Van der Poel and a few promising young riders. "I had hoped for Mathieu and Milan, with some points from Nordemann added into the mix... But the big points won't come from Milan. His schedule runs until the European Championships in Poland, and then an assessment will be made. Will he continue with mountain biking or refocus on road cycling? I'm afraid it will be the latter. Moreover, Milan needs to meet our KNWU qualification requirement for the Olympics, which is a top-eight finish in a chosen World Cup race. He is currently far from that level."

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg)