These mountain bikers could spoil Van der Poel's Olympic dream at the World Championships

Mathieu van der Poel will race in Scotland on Saturday in what is likely the most important race for him in the qualification cycle for mountain biking at the Olympic Games in Paris next year. The Dutchman must finish in Tweed Valley among the top two riders from countries that have not yet qualified through the conventional path, but which riders should he particularly watch out for? IDLProCycling.com, sought out a select group of names.

Quite a bit has already been said about how and what, but for completeness, we'll provide a brief summary: the Netherlands is currently ranked 28th for the Olympics, while a spot among the first nineteen countries (twenty if you include host country France) is needed to secure at least one starting ticket via the 'normal' route. This path is almost impossible for the Dutch (and other countries) to navigate, as the difference with the nineteenth-placed Czech Republic is huge.

Van der Poel, national coach Gerben de Knegt, and, by extension, KNWU, can still earn a spot in Scotland via another way: a place in the results among the first two countries not yet qualified for Paris. All parties are aware of the importance of the upcoming World Championships in Glentress Forest, part of the super-World Championships where Van der Poel already managed to grab the world title in the road race in Glasgow last Sunday.

"I think he can finish among the first nine without preparation," national coach Gerben De Knegt already stated. That should normally be enough for a starting spot for the Olympics, but what is most important is what a few riders from other countries do. Van der Poel must leave those behind in Scotland. We found out who they are based on individual UCI rankings and goals for Paris 2024.

1. Peter Sagan (age 33, Slovakia) - UCI Ranking: none 

If Van der Poel is on the very last starting row of the mountain bike World Championship on Sunday - which is still uncertain - he will encounter a familiar face from road cycling: Peter Sagan. After this year, he will say goodbye to professional road racing and will fully focus on his mountain bike in 2024. The Slovakian faces the same difficult situation as Van der Poel, although Sagan's is even more precarious: he wants to participate in the Olympic Games, but with a 30th place on the country ranking for Slovakia, it will be tough. Matej Ulik is currently ranked best for the country in the UCI Ranking, at spot 121.

Sagan has already hinted that he realizes it will be difficult. "I don't even know if I'll make the Games, but my return to the mountain bike will be a beautiful adventure," said the 2008 junior world champion in mountain biking, who did not finish his last road World Championship last Sunday.

2. Martins Blums (age 28, Latvia) - UCI Ranking: 12

Based on the UCI Ranking, one man stands out that Van der Poel must keep an eye on: the Latvian Martins Blums, who is probably not yet really on the radar of the general public in the Netherlands. However, he's not an unmerited mountain biker who finished top ten in the World Cups of Lenzerheide and Val di Sole and was eleventh at the World Championship last year.

Blums has the advantage of starting further ahead due to his better ranking but must face the fact that the Dutchman normally has superior intrinsic talent. Van der Poel will eagerly want to pass the Latvian shirt on Saturday.

3. Sam Fox (age 23, Australia) - UCI Ranking: 60 

Also, Gil Ly Gonen, number 33 in the world ranking, could theoretically be an obstacle for Van der Poel. However, the Israeli can find his country currently in 20th place on the global country ranking, which, thanks to the good performance of the French, should normally be good for a ticket to the Olympic Games. Therefore, we look a little further for this article, at the 23-year-old Aussie Sam Fox.

Fox is a first-year elite and someone Van der Poel normally should be able to beat. He finished thirteenth at the World Championship for U23 last season and rode this season's World Cups of Nove Mesto, Lenzerheide, and Leogang, where he only ended in the top fifty once. Nevertheless, he told Escape Collective that qualifying for the Olympics is the goal. "We can achieve something good at the World Championship, but it will be complicated anyway. It's a very important goal."

4. Zsombor Palumby (27, Hungary) - UCI Ranking: 69

The Hungarians also do not yet have a spot for next year's Olympic Games. With Szombor Palumby, they have number 69 in the UCI Ranking, but should Van der Poel lose sleep over that on Friday or Saturday? We doubt it.

Palumby rode this season's World Cups in Nove Mesto (92nd), Leogang (46th), and Val di Sole (68th), while he managed a 47th place at the World Championship last year. These are positions where Van der Poel usually finds his stride, under normal circumstances.

5. Joel Fernando Contreras (age 26, Argentina) - UCI Ranking: 74

Some South American countries can still clinch a spot for the Olympics. Argentina is one of the options with Joel Fernando Contreras as the main contender. The number 74 in the world ranking is someone Van der Poel normally should be able to handle. The Argentine finished 72nd at the World Championship last year.

Agustin Duran and newly crowned Argentine champion Catriel Soto will also start for the Argentinians, who have not yet given up hope on the Olympics. "We are already living in a big dream because we can compete with the best mountain bikers in the world, but we are ready to give everything for it," they said on social media.

Which countries could theoretically also threaten Van der Poel and the Netherlands?

There are still other countries that also could theoretically compete for one of the two remaining Olympic tickets, but in practice, it's a bit different: some of the countries below will not even send someone to Scotland, while others must rely on riders outside the first (two) hundred in the country ranking. A rider from Puerto Rico (Georwill Pérez Román) is the exception, but then we are talking about the last place finisher from last year's World Championships. Ukraine also has someone in the top hundred, but Oleksandr Hudyma has decided to ride with the U23. Colombia, with the likes of Jhonattan Botero, might still pose a threat.

Conclusion: The path to Paris for Van der Poel is normally open

Van der Poel will mainly have the Olympic starting ticket on his mind at the start of the mountain bike race on Saturday, as he reiterated on Wednesday. "I'll see how it goes, and if it goes well, it's nice. If it doesn't go well, it's not even a disappointment, because I have no high expectations," he said.

Despite the consequences of his fall on Sunday, the Dutchman should normally be able to stay ahead of the mentioned men in Tweed Valley, where he likely won't want to take any unnecessary risks. For a well-performing Van der Poel, the road to Paris is open.