Tour de France indicators point towards Jumbo-Visma: Vingegaard's smile just a little brighter than everyone else's

'Atypical,' 'surprising' and 'tougher than ever': these are just a few of the reactions voiced on Wednesday afternoon at the Palais des Congrès in Paris, following the announcement of the 2024 Tour de France route. In the French capital, IDLProCycling.com listened to the opinions of numerous prominent figures and, based on that, we can provide you with our preliminary assessment of 'La Grande Boucle'.

We start - as we've known for some time now - in the Italian city of Florence, from where we ride straight to the coast through no less than seven categorized hills. In Rimini, the first yellow jersey of next year's Tour de France will be awarded, after which we depart the following day from the nearby Cesenatico for a similar stage.

So, it will definitely be a challenging start, much like what we had in 2023 (Bilbao), 2021 (Brest) and 2020 (Nice). The ASO seems to be favoring the punchers, as in recent years, riders like Julian Alaphilippe and Mathieu van der Poel have put on impressive performances in the early days of the Tour de France. We can expect to see these riders again next year, as suggested by Van der Poel's teammate, Jasper Philipsen. "Those first two stages could definitely be within his capabilities, although they are tough. I believe it's not out of the question for him to go for the yellow jersey again," the Belgian rider commented.

GC riders will have to show their cards from the get-go in first week of the Tour

Can we expect anything in terms of the general classification in Italy? Not immediately, that's the general expectation. A significant portion of the stakeholders in Paris is pointing towards stage four for that, starting in Pinerolo and finishing in Valloire. In this stage, the peloton immediately ventures into the Alps, covering a 138-kilometer route through Sestrieres, up the Col de Montgenevre, and finishing with the Galibier as the cherry on top. "The Tour can be decided in the first week. That fourth stage is very challenging," Patrick Lefevere stated unequivocally.

"With the type of riders currently racing? They always go full throttle," he argued. "Indeed, it's a tough start," Richard Plugge agreed. The Dutchman will be thanking his lucky stars to have Jonas Vingegaard riding this stage - we know he is good at altitude and in the Alps. "You have to be in good form right from the start," the Dane himself commented. Rival Tadej Pogacar expressed similar sentiments in L'Equipe. "I find the first week very interesting. It's a bit tougher than the past few years. You'll need to be in good condition right from the start of the Tour."

In stages five and six, the sprinters are expected to take the lead again, although the ASO has not yet released the final details of all the stages. "They say there are eight flat stages, so that should be the maximum," Philipsen commented on his chances in the upcoming Tour de France. "The days when sprinters had ten to twelve opportunities is a thing of the past," the Belgian added.

Mark Cavendish seconds that statement of younger rival Philipsen. The British cyclist will be participating in his fifteenth Tour de France next year but has expressed being "shocked" after seeing the course plans. "It's so tough, so challenging," he emphasized to the press. "It's a very difficult Tour de France. I wouldn't have minded a much easier Tour," he remarked after getting a glimpse of the initial course outlines.

On the seventh day, the first individual time trial is scheduled, the discipline where Vingegaard made his mark last year. "Hopefully, I can reach the same level as last year again. It's something that suits me," the Dane said about the total of sixty kilometers against the clock in this Tour de France. Lefevere, the team manager of world champion Evenepoel, shared a similar view. "It should suit Remco, but our friend that won this year (meaning Vingegaard, ed.) also excels in that discipline," he added in his distinctive manner of speaking.

On to the ninth stage - by far the most discussed stage of the upcoming Tour de France: around Troyes, the riders will have to tackle a whopping 32 kilometers of gravel roads, which is strongly disapproved of by Plugge, Lefevere and other key figures in the race. "A blemish," the Jumbo-Visma CEO called it. "I'm not in favor of it because it introduces a significant element of luck. Why do we need to go looking for gravel now? It can do so much harm." Lefevere voiced a similar sentiment. "You can compare it to cobblestones - I'm not a fan. You can't win the Tour there, but you can lose it."

Vingegaard laughed it all off ("maybe I should buy a gravel bike"), while classic specialists like Van der Poel and Wout van Aert will be eagerly looking forward to this day. "That gravel stage is perfect for Mathieu," teammate Philipsen remarked. After the stage on the gravel roads, the riders at least have a rest day to take stock.

Stage ten, on the other hand, is tailor-made for the flat terrain specialists. Stage eleven has so far somewhat been overshadowed by the challenges that await in the Alps and Pyrenees. However, in the Central Massif, the riders still have to conquer 4,350 meters of elevation gain, the majority of which is in the second half of the stage with the finish in Le Lioran. This could be one of those stages where everything suddenly gets turned upside down.

Twelve and thirteen can be labeled as transition stages with opportunities for attackers, after which we reach the Pyrenees. The fourteenth stage sets the stage for the first real uphill finish on Pla d'Adet (10.6 kilometers at 7.9 percent gradient). This comes after a day with multiple climbs, so we can expect some excitement here as well.

The following day, on the 14th of July or - as the French say - Quatorze Juillet, the peloton faces a massive stage with 4,850 meters of elevation gain and a finish on Plateau de Beille, a climb that is 15.8 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7.9 percent. So, on the day of the French Revolution, the peloton won't be spared!

Sprinters have few opportunities in this Tour de France

After a well-deserved second rest day, the peloton sets off on July 16 for stage sixteen, the last opportunity for sprinters in this Tour de France. Quite remarkable for the fast men, who normally endure all the mountains to have their moment on the Champs-Élysées. Philipsen even openly questioned whether it was worth continuing all the way to Nice.

Anyway, a green jersey will likely still be up for grabs at the start of the seventeenth stage. In that stage, the better climbing attackers will probably get another chance, as the final climb to Superdévoluy doesn't seem steep enough for a direct battle among the general classification contenders. In the eighteenth stage, the attackers or punchers will also have an opportunity, but after that, the fun seems to come to an end for the sprinters.

There's no argument about the queen stage of this Tour de France: it's stage nineteen, labeled by the organizers as an ultra-mountain stage. Less than 150 kilometers long but featuring three Alpine giants exceeding 2000 meters. Among them is the Col de la Bonette, France's highest paved road at 2800 meters. The stage finishes at Isola 2000, which means a repeat of sorts of 2022's famous Col du Granon stage.

As if all that weren't tough enough, stage twenty is once again a grueling ride. Heading right into the steepest climbs of Paris-Nice, the peloton must once more battle it out in a direct duel, with cols bearing names such as Turini, Barus, Colmiane - and the finale at Couillole.

Due to the Olympics, there won't be a final parade in Paris either. In case the battle for the yellow jersey would not have been decided at that point, the candidates will have to give their all once more in the final time trial between Monaco and Nice. This time trial includes the Turbie and Col d'Eze, so we can definitely call this the toughest finish the Tour de France has ever seen. "A lot is still possible in those final stages," Plugge pointed out - for good reason.

The two main contenders for overall victory share this perspective. Vingegaard openly admitted he is satisfied with the course. "It's a tough Tour de France, especially with a very challenging third week. It includes many high climbs. And the higher we go, the better it is for me," said the Dane, who will have to contend with Pogacar. "The final days will be very tough, and I find the time trial between Monaco and Nice super interesting," said the Slovenian, who lives in Monaco. "I'm really looking forward to it."

ASO appears to choose challenging Tour de France course versus classic Olympic Games course

With the classic route of the 2024 Olympic Games on the horizon, the ASO seems to be leaning more towards setting the stage for a battle among the four biggest general classification riders of the moment: Pogacar, Roglic, Evenepoel and Vingegaard. The punchers and classic specialists are not forgotten, especially in the first part of the race, but ultimately, this edition of the Tour exudes a slightly less Van der Poel vs. Van Aert vs. Alaphilippe than has been the case in recent years. Also in the mix are all-rounders Evenepoel, Pogacar and Tom Pidcock, who seem inclined to pursue a combination strategy. However, how thrilled will these riders be with 2024's Vingegaard-centric route featuring altitude landmarks like Galibier, Plateau de Beille and the Bonette?